We here at vicepresidents.com regret all the focus on polls and the Presidential horse race. Let’s talk about what really matters, who will be the next VP. While the Republican Presidential race is, to put it mildly, a mess, the VP derby should be easier to handicap. So let’s look at the key elements which go into picking a VP in the GOP.
1) Healing the party – the GOP rarely needs healing, since they always give it to the person whose turn it is. This time may be different, as the battle could go to the convention and someone may need to be picked to get the required delegates, or to mollify a wing of the party. Mike Huckabee is the most likely name to surface under this scenario.
2) Filling in the blanks – Governors are perceived to need foreign policy help, Senators may need help in other areas. If a Governor gets the nomination, look for him to turn to the Senate for a name.
3) Geography – Not so much a balance, but a very specific need for the GOP. No Republican ticket has won without either a Californian or a Texan on it since 1920. That’s right, 88 years ago. Since Duncan Hunter and Ron Paul are, to put it mildly, unlikely to get the nomination, this may need to be addressed.
Let’s look at the Presidential candidates for their optimal choices:
1. John McCain – Needs to mollify the religious right, which could well lead to Huckabee as his running mate. He might also need Huckabee’s delegates to get the nomination. Huck is pretty much the only candidate who is likely to fit in the #2 slot. Of course, Huck isn’t from Texas or California, so would an Arizona-Arkansas ticket do the trick? They’re close to CA and TX. If he goes directly for the geography, Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison would be a good choice, especially against Clinton, or possibly Texas Gov. Rick Perry.
2. Mike Huckabee – Hutchison is his obvious choice, as all Senators are considered to know stuff about foreign policy. She is also the ranking member on the Appropriations and Commerce committees, which solidifies Huck’s economic background. If he wants to go even stronger for foreign policy bona fides, Condi Rice is from California and her stock is on the upswing within the party.
3. Mitt Romney – Condi Rice would seem the obvious choice for him. It would sort of inoculate him against the racist history of Mormonism, and be good for foreign policy weakness as well.
4. Rudy Giuliani – Huckabee would help with religious conservatives, but so would Hutchison. Huckabee’s niceness would counteract Rudy’s nastiness. Hutchison might help with women, who can’t be too thrilled with Rudy’s cavalier attitude toward marital vows. It’s a tossup between them.
5. Fred Thompson – Sam Waterston is the obvious choice as his #2, but he’s too busy. Hutchison night help the picture at the convention, perhaps taking the curse off Fred’s trophy wife.
