The 2012 Vice Presidential Debate is scheduled for:
Thursday, October 11, 2012
Centre College, Danville, KY
That’s still 244 days away, so to wet your whistle, here are some of the greatest VP debate moments in history:
Video: Greatest VP Debate Moments
When Do We Pick The GOP VP Nominee?
Historically, we learn of the GOP VP nominee the week before Convention, where the whole ticket is formally announced. Barack Obama announced Joe Biden as his VP 7 days prior to the Democratic National Convention. John McCain announced Sarah Palin as his VP nominee 3 days before the Republican National Convention.
George W Bush announced Cheney as his running mate 4 days prior to the convention; John Kerry announced John Edwards as his running mate 20 days prior to the convention (which was considered much too long). Bill Clinton announced Al Gore as his running mate 4 days prior to the convention. Al Gore announced Joe Lieberman as his running mate a week before the convention. In 1992, George HW Bush announced Dan Quayle as his running mate ON the first day of the convention (which was considered too short notice).
A Closer Look At VEEP Prospect Paul Ryan
Pundits tend to obsess over people who will never accept the #2 spot on the ticket. For instance, during the 2008 election, every other article was about how Barack Obama was “definitely going to select Hillary Rodham Clinton as his VP,” but deep down, you had to know that wasn’t going to happen — not after all they’d been through. This election cycle, people are still pining for Clinton. For the GOP ticket, the obvious favorite is Marco Rubio… but again, I really don’t see that happening. Every once in a while I come across a name that hasn’t been widely circulated in the Veepstakes yet, but ends up being so perfect I have to wonder why no one is squawking about it. One of these people is Paul Ryan.
Roots
If you’re looking for someone who appeals to middle class voters, Paul Ryan could talk nostalgically about how his hardworking great-grandfather started the Ryan Incorporated Central construction business. Or perhaps he’ll stump about his years of driving the Wienermobile for Oscar Meyer to put himself through college. Some of his other odd jobs during college included opening mail for Wisconsin Senator Bob Kasten as a lowly intern, waiting tables at the Tortilla Coast restaurant, and fitness training at the Washington Sport and Health Club, to name a few. He’s a pretty “real” guy, wouldn’t you say?
Career
Once he had his BA in Economics, his mother urged him to give up his dreams of being a ski bum and accept a position as a staff economist for Bob Kasten, which he did. Once Kasten was pushed out by Russ Feingold, Ryan went on to write speeches and contribute to conservative think-tank Empower America. He wrote speeches for Jack Kemp during the 1996 election cycle and worked as legislative director for US Senator Sam Brownback of Kansas. He was elected to the US House of Representatives (WI) in 1999, where he still works today. He was one of three founding members of the Republican “Young Guns Program” (along with Eric Cantor and Kevin McCarthy) in 2008, which was wildly successful in recruiting and generating enthusiasm for up-and-coming Republican leaders. In 2010, The Daily Telegraph ranked him the “9th Most Influential US Conservative,” and he won 68 percent of the vote that year in his re-election bid. He outlined his vision for America in a detailed paper entitled, “Roadmap For America’s Future,” which discussed topics like healthcare, job creation and debt reduction — all hot topics for this election. On Capitol Hill, he is very much known as a man who thinks bold and comes up with realistic solutions to America’s greatest problems. Just last year, he was named Chairman of the House Committee on the Budget.
Continue reading about Paul Ryan’s popularity and what Mitt has to say…
A History Lesson: How We Choose VPs
Historically Speaking… The things that have mattered most in selecting a running mate were: geography, ability to carry a state, and ideological balance.
In The Past, The “Loser” Became The VP.
Once upon a time, the Vice President was simply the presidential contender with the second-highest number of votes. Yet, this caused many problems for early presidents who would up with flustered Veeps who didn’t much like taking orders or agree with the president’s policies. However, it was the Election of 1800 which ultimately changed the way we select vice presidents. The highly contentious battle between Thomas Jefferson and Aaron Burr led to a tie in electoral votes and political deadlock, thus exposing a weakness in the Constitution. Even after Burr was elected VEEP, Jefferson felt he could never trust his #2 in command. He gave the vice president very little to do and felt exceedingly uncomfortable when Burr began petitioning to get all his cronies appointed to special positions. The 12th Amendment was passed in 1804 to limit the confusion in the future, should a tie occur.
Yet, the conflict between Presidents and their Vice Presidents was hardly solved. John C. Calhoun and Andrew Jackson immediately come to mind when I think of Washington odd couples. The two hardly ever agreed on any major issue and let petty personal quarrels come between them. In fact, divisions ran so deep that Calhoun became the first VEEP to resign from his post – leaving no acting vice president from December 28th, 1832 to March 4th, 1833.
VP Speculation Takes Center-stage!
The Veepstakes is generating a lot of hype this year — and we are pleased as punch!
“We have more instantly credible vice presidents than we do people running for president,” Ed Rogers, a veteran of the Bush-Quayle campaign and co-founder (with Haley Barbour) of public relations group BGR.
Similarly, Republican strategist Ford O’Connell echoed: “There is probably more enthusiasm for the potential V.P. pick than there is for the overall Republican field.”
A Few Key Names…
The New Republic recently took a close look at what they call “The Vice Squad,” naming many of the contenders we’ve also discussed in recent weeks. They list:
- Marco Rubio, who appeals to Latinos, Tea Partiers, Florida voters, social conservatives and establishment Republicans… but is so fresh and ambitious that he is unlikely to ever accept a #2 spot when he could just hold off a few years and run for president.
- Susana Martinez, who is popular among many different factions of Republican voters, not to mention Latino communities in Colorado, New Mexico and Nevada. However, she has not been very well-vetted and is still relatively unknown outside of her geographic area.
- Chris Christie, who is tough, exciting and brash, although he doesn’t hold conservative appeal and doesn’t come from a state with crucial electoral votes.
- Rob Portman, who is experienced, from the swing state of Ohio, and a favorite among establishment Republicans. However, he does look and sound a lot like Romney.
- John Thune, who is popular among conservative circles, but is very much like Romney in his demeanor and does not carry a swing state.
- Bob McDonnell, who brings the swing state of Virginia and appeals to social conservatives, but he has made enough controversial statements in the past that might anger more moderate and independent voters (such as the idea that “working women are a detriment to the family.”)
- Nikki Haley, who is liked by Tea Partiers and brings American Indian diversity to the ticket, but has been plagued by infidelity and does not come from a swing state.
- Brian Sandoval, who is a well-liked Latino governor, but has limited national presence.
- Mitch Daniels, who has impressive public and private sector experience, although he has publicly said he doesn’t want to drag his family through the campaigning process and media scrutiny.
Don’t Expect A Long Shot VEEP…
The race is still in full-swing, but if we’re going to run with Romney here for a minute, it’s safe to say that he’s not going to make any wild, rash decisions. He’s run his campaign slow, steady and cautiously thus so far, so for him to pick a big “surprise” (as McCain did with Palin) seems unrealistic. So I’d say we can probably count out the women and Latinos on the list who have not been thoroughly vetted or who are not well-known already. These shining stars have plenty of years to work on their careers and make their own runs for the White House. I think the pains of the McCain selection are too fresh in the minds of Republicans to make the same mistake twice.
Perhaps The Nominee Will Select An “Agent Of Change”…
We’ve recently discussed how geography doesn’t seem to play as big a role in selecting a VP these days. Ideologically, he might want someone who is more entrenched in Washington — who can help him make key plays and get things done on Capitol Hill. Some people like to mention Eric Cantor, but President Obama has made him the face of Republican resistance lately and he’s widely viewed as a very polarizing figure in Washington. Rick Santorum has been pushing and pulling his weight around Washington in the US House and Senate for a good 21 years. Newt Gingrich is also very much a Washington insider, but it’s questionable whether he would be able to work with Romney after making such barbed insults and it’s equally questionable who his base of supporters really is. John Thune also has more than a decade, mostly in the US House but recently elected to the Senate.
We Imagine The Ideal VP Will Be Fresh & Exciting!
Yet, Romney might also want to choose a firebrand who will get people excited. I think this point is particularly important for him, since voters have consistently expressed the opinion that they are not “terribly excited” about Romney, but they feel he could “best beat Obama.” Some people wonder if Romney is really genuine in what he says, or if he is someone who can really deliver on his promises to reverse Obamacare and other legislation. Chris Christie is an obvious “wow-factor” choice, due to his whirlwind ability to rouse crowds on the campaign trail. He’s also been all over the national news lately as “that loud-mouthed guy from New Jersey,” and there is something very vice presidential about his off-the-cuff swagger. I think Rand Paul is another person who would get people riled up with his rhetoric, although he would probably have a laundry list of stipulations before accepting the post because he’s the type of person who needs to be at the forefront of transformative change — or else he’s content to sit this round out and wait his turn. Also, let’s not forget about Paul Ryan, who we’ve profiled here.
It’s Nice To See “Attack Dog” Biden Back In Action
Since the Vice President handed over his stimulus enforcement position to Earl Devaney (and subsequently Kathleen Tighe), he has been able to focus on more pressing tasks – like taking on the Republican establishment during an election season. His scathing December 22nd Op Ed in the Des Moines Register shows that he is ready to put up a fight and defend the policies of the Obama-Biden administration over the last three years.
A few of his talking points are as follows…
My dad had a saying: ‘A job is about more than a paycheck. It’s about dignity. It’s about respect.’
(ZING!)
He never believed he was owed anything, but he did believe if you worked hard and played by the rules, you were entitled to be treated with dignity and respect and a fair shake.
(You can bet this will be the primary message on both sides for the election, but the question is: Whose plan will Americans believe levels the playing field the most?)
Romney appears satisfied to settle for an economy in which fewer people succeed, while the majority of Americans are left to tread water or fall behind. His proposal would actually double down on the policies that caused the greatest economic calamity since the Great Depression and accelerated a decades-long assault on the middle class.
(Biden portrays Romney as a reckless gambler who has his corporate cronies in mind. OUCH!)
How can anyone forget the economic catastrophe brought about by the same policies Mr. Romney’s proposing? His are the same policies that deregulated Wall Street and turned it into a casino that gambled recklessly with hardworking Americans’ money. As a consequence, Americans saw the equity in their homes evaporate and their 401(k)s plummet in value. Millions of jobs were lost.
(Americans have very short memories, so the Democrats are going to have to hammer this home time and time again because many people forget that Obama inherited a big clusterf—.)
Mitt or Newt For VEEP?
Some analysts say we’re looking at a two-way race between Newt Gingrich and Mitt Romney, and (like back in the olden days) the second-place finisher will graciously accept the vice presidential nomination from the victor. Since Barack Obama selected a former adversary to be his #2 in command, people have gotten used to the idea of a high-profile running mate being added to the ticket. After all, there are so many GOP debates this year, the public may feel sad to see all the candidates fade into obscurity for good.
Can They Put Ego Aside?
So let’s just say for a minute that it comes down to Mitt vs. Newt. Gingrich has already publicly stated he would consider a vice presidential order. Mitt remains adamant that he’ll win, but perhaps he would accept that “something is better than nothing” after all the time and money invested. Both men show executive leadership potential, so egos could be hard to swallow — especially after the barbed attacks that (even they admit) have escalated a bit too far. If the race continues to be a competitive two-way race (like Obama vs. Clinton in 2008), then the nominee may turn to a Rick Santorum, a Jon Huntsman or a Michele Bachmann instead.
Benefits of a Gingrich / Romney Union…
- The ticket will be balanced with a North (Romney – Massachusetts) / South (Gingrich – Georgia)
- Gingrich excels in foreign, whereas Mitt is more of a domestic issues guy.
- Gingrich has a background in politics, while Mitt has a background in business.
- Both candidates are skilled enough in the art of debate to take on Obama/Biden.
- Both candidates are good at raising money.
Trouble With The Ticket…
There are also many reasons that a Romney/Gingrich ticket would be doomed. Despite the overall poll lead for both candidates, they have failed to attract huge portions of their bases. For instance, Mitt appeals to moderate republicans and right-leaning independents, but there is a growing “anyone but Mitt” sentiment. Meanwhile, Gingrich has had trouble reconnecting with his conservative base who cheered him on when he was House Speaker, but who are irked by his rise to power now. That being said, he is still more popular among conservatives than Romney. His fan base also includes older voters and Tea Party supporters that Romney has failed to woo.
The Bottom Line:
Since Gingrich has been heavily promoted as the Anti-Romney candidate, it will be hard to imagine either side becoming terribly excited about their merger. Although, they might opt to put aside their differences and hope that their supporters feel the same as they do — that any GOP choice is better than Obama/Biden 2012.
